20% market share in the next five years is enough to feed Microsoft

Computer store news: As the PC market continues to shrink, Microsoft Windows' operating share has gradually declined, while its mobile operating system share has not increased significantly. On the occasion of the general decline in Microsoft, market research firm Asymco analyst Horace Dediu said that the global computing market will grow rapidly in the next five years, even if Microsoft only accounts for 20% of the share. Enough to survive.

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In the PC era, Windows accounted for more than 90% of the total, basically forming a monopoly, and Microsoft can attract the best. Talent and developer. But when it moved to mobile devices, Microsoft fell behind.

But it is still too early to assert that the death of the PC. According to data from market research firm Net Applications, Microsoft still accounts for about 83% of the PC market. However, the market is rapidly declining. Research firm IDC said that PC sales fell 13.9% in the first quarter of this year, and tablets are becoming more popular, but Windows 8 and Surface tablets are not selling well.

Net Applications data shows that the share of Microsoft's mobile operating system, including mobile phones and tablets, is less than 2%. Sales of Microsoft Windows Phone seem to have improved. Market research firm Kantar Worldpanel ComTech said that in the three months to April 13, the US Windows Phone smartphone sales share was 5.6%, up from 3.8% in the same period last year. But this is far from the glory of the Microsoft PC era.

Despite this, Dedio believes that although Microsoft's share of the PC (including tablet) market may fall below 50% this year, its situation in the next five years will not be very dangerous.

Dedio believes that even if it only accounts for 20% of the global computing market in the future, Microsoft can survive and be large enough to attract application developers. He wrote: “The total number of users in the computing market in the next five years may exceed 4 billion, with an average of 1.5 devices per user. This means that a 20% share equals more than 1 billion devices, and such an ecosystem is good enough for the average developer & rsquo; Of course, it is good enough for Windows developers so far. ”