The economic outlook is worrisome. Nonferrous metals have been hit hard.

Global stock markets fell sharply last week. The metal futures market also fell sharply except for gold. The basic metals of the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell sharply, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, Nickel and tin fell by 8.0%, 8.5%, 9.6%, 11.6%, 10.0%, and 13.3% respectively. In the domestic market, non-ferrous metals futures and related stocks other than gold also fell sharply. For the non-ferrous plate market, analysts such as CICC and Xingye are optimistic about the gold sector and electrolytic aluminum plate in the short term, and focus on copper and small metal plates in the medium term.

Jingjing Economic Data and Policy Trends

Yesterday, after several consecutive trading days, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Aluminum's main contract bottomed out, and the decline slowed down. At around 2%, Shanghai zinc main contract fell more than 3%, Shanghai lead fell 0.61%. Shanghai aluminum main contract on the same day, the top 20 members held a total of 178,540 hands, an increase of 133,280 hands; long positions 56,913 hands, lighten up 432 hands; short positions 73,916 hands, lighten up 17238 hands. The top 20 members of the Shanghai copper main contract held a total of 133,676 positions, plus 389 hands; long positions 34,440 hands, plus 4,450 hands; short positions 37,067 positions, plus 2,825 hands. The top 20 members of the Shanghai Zinc main contract held a total of 318,177 positions, plus 155,711; long positions 49001, 783 positions; short positions 66,367, plus 3,924.

However, the stock market related stocks reaction is relatively lagging behind, the big wisdom (market, information) market system shows that the non-ferrous metal sector fell more than 3%. In addition to gold stocks rose, the other colored stocks fell more than 3 %.

According to Cai Hongyu, an analyst at CICC, the global economic growth is slowing, the European debt crisis is intensifying and the US may adopt a new round of quantitative easing policy, which will support the gold price. The defensiveness of gold stocks will be highlighted in the short term, followed by small metal stocks with price support, and base metal stocks are the most stressful.

In the medium term, when China’s inflation data peaks, policies show signs of relaxation, European debt problems ease, and Europe and the United States once again introduce a new round of stimulus policies, the colored sector is expected to usher in a significant rebound. Basic metal stocks have the greatest elasticity. Cai Hongyu suggested closely monitoring the economic data and policy trends of China and Europe and the United States to capture the best investment time.

In the near future, we will continue to pay attention to gold stocks. In the medium term, we will focus on Jiangxi Copper in the base metals (market, information) A/H shares (good fundamentals), Chihong Zinc (quotes, information) (asset injection) And molybdenum resource expansion) and Zhongjin Lingnan (market, information) (multiple resource expansion) trading opportunities, while paying attention to small metal stocks in Chenzhou Mining (quotation, information) (golden tungsten 锑 three tripods), Xiamen tungsten Industry (quotation, information) (high-end of tungsten industry chain and expansion of resources in Jiangxi), Oriental industry (market, information) (strong demand for antimony products, investment in new materials projects), and Baotou Steel Rare Earth (quotes, information) (waiting Re-introduction after the full reversal of the price of rare earth. The electronic electrode aluminum foil industry is promising in the next 2-3 years. Xinjiang Zhonghe (market, information) and Dongyang Aluminum (market, information) with leading technology and cost advantages will benefit from structural high growth.

Industrial Securities (information, information) analyst Luo Renyuan and Oriental Securities analyst Yang Baofeng are also not optimistic about the trend of basic metals. Luo Renyuan believes that the consumption of basic metals is in the off-season, and the overall demand is not strong, maintaining the industry's “neutral” rating.

In terms of inventory, tin in the global exchange of metal stocks rose by 7.7% in a week, nickel rose by 0.1%, and aluminum, lead and zinc fell by 1.4%, 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.

Lead and zinc stocks are close to historical highs

However, copper stocks remain unchanged. Yang Baofeng said that from the start of the current bull market in 2003, the current inventory of copper on the exchange is relatively low, only 50% of the high peak, while lead and zinc are close to the highest in history. Given that inflation does not see a significant cooling, monetary policy will not be relaxed. It is expected that in the next 1-2 months, the domestic stock market as a whole will still be difficult to have a big market.

At the same time, the inventory data of aluminum last week was more conspicuous. The data from the previous period showed that aluminum stocks continued to decline, down 10.83%. At the same time, the Shanghai aluminum spot's premium reached 255 yuan per ton, last week's LME latest There were still 378,400 tons of unloaded warehouse receipts, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts remained above 10%, indicating strong demand for primary aluminum.

Therefore, they are all optimistic about the electrolytic aluminum plate. Luo Renyuan said that although aluminum exports will decline significantly in the second half of the year as domestic and international spreads narrow, while aluminum export tax rebates will be reduced from 13% to 9% in the coming months, the short-term aluminum spot shortage will be expected. ease. However, long-term non-profits lead to insufficient investment and backward infrastructure facilities in the northwest region will all significantly slow down the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. It is expected that the supply of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a balance between supply and demand in the coming year, and prices will continue to rise. In terms of individual stocks, we recommend Yun Aluminum (stock, information).

Yang Baofeng said that given that the current position is already at the bottom of the range shock this year, it is not necessary to be too pessimistic. It is recommended to focus on the sectors or stocks that have experienced large declines in the previous period, or that have good fundamentals. Such as copper, tin, gold, tantalum titanium zirconium and so on. For the electrolytic aluminum plate, the layout can still be bargain-hunting.