Windows 8 is not the absolute pen Microsoft will dominate the post-PC era

The tech blogger ArsTechnica wrote that critics have used the post-PC era to predict Microsoft's future, and Windows 8 has become Microsoft's best. PCs and notebooks can converge, and the tablet is entirely likely to embark on the old path of the notebook. "The PC era" was just a concept that they had stolen.

The full text is as follows:

Since the first appearance of Windows 8, critics have regarded this system as a failure of Microsoft. They think that the degree of Windows 8 abandoning the Windows legacy is surprising, and other operating systems can sneak into the market, attracting a large number of Windows customers in the consumer and enterprise markets.

Some analysts believe that Windows 8 is a signal that Microsoft is adapting to the changing times, and Windows and PC will gradually decline in the new environment. According to this view, the once-supplied “Microsoft+Intel” platform will be dying.

In fact, the views of both sides are not accurate enough. We can only say that they are half right. Windows 8 will indeed create a huge opportunity for another system, which will eventually dominate the desktop and notebook markets, but this can only be Windows 7. Obviously, Windows 8 can't make this happen. Even if someone criticizes Windows 8 for messing up the user experience, it adds a lot of features, and Microsoft will clear the way for the next generation of Windows. The next generation of Windows will not only face the desktop platform, but also face the more complex computing kingdom.

Windows 7 will be the biggest beneficiary of Windows 8, but it's not just a problem with Windows 8. Given that Microsoft products provide long-term technical support services, enterprise users tend to use a smaller generation of Windows. Windows 7 will end technical support in January 2020. If Windows 8 is not selling well, retailers and original equipment manufacturers will choose Windows 7.

I am not a Windows enthusiast, I am a realist. The reality today is that when more and more people talk about “carrying personal devices”, they tend to choose a tablet, but the PC does not die, it just changes the style, size and location. We can imagine a picture of people using a 64-core computing device equipped with an Android 12 system, connected to Google glasses similar to the science fiction movie Minority Report. Even so, I bet Windows will survive, and 10% of the world's computers will still run Windows XP.

Of course, there are many other points of view around the future of Windows. I only choose the two most representative ones, and they all think that Microsoft is hanging on the line. But these two views are full of loopholes, which in turn eliminates people's concerns about the fate of Windows.

Insignificant Linux

First, let's talk about Linux. To be honest, despite the fact that Ubuntu has significantly improved the functionality of the distribution, Linux is still insignificant in the operating system market, and its global market share can reflect this. Market research firm NetMarketshare data shows that Linux's current global share is only 1.1%. In comparison, Windows has a global share of 91% and OS X is 7%.

Today, Windows XP continues to occupy 40% market share. With the end of XP technical support, XP users will choose other systems, but they will not choose Linux.

Supporters may think that for Windows XP users, Linux is easier to migrate than Windows 8, as follows:

*Windows 8 has improved the user interface

* These improvements will make it difficult for many users to get started

*Linux is good enough, not expensive, and may be easier to get started than Windows 8

*So, migrating Linux is better than migrating Windows 8 Better

In fact, Linux has more advantages. For example, the Ubuntu license agreement does not want to be as complex as Windows. Ubuntu does not require upgrading desktop hardware, and provides mature open source desktop programs such as LibreOffice.

The above reasons sound reasonable, but the premise is wrong. According to my point of view:

*Windows 8 does vary, but Linux is obviously more unfamiliar

*No matter how painful it is to migrate to Windows 8, it will still run Windows software and management Tools; losing these things will undoubtedly make many people more painful than the new start screen.

*Windows 8 is not a competitor, but Windows 7 is more competitive.

More important. In fact, organizations and business users who still use Windows XP will not migrate to the latest version of Windows, let alone Linux. Several US government departments have now begun to migrate Windows 7 on a large scale, eventually getting rid of the old XP. It takes at least 5 years for them to upgrade the system once.

In addition, some Windows XP users may not upgrade the new system for the following reasons: a certain software does not get Windows 7 certification; they are not interested in system upgrades when necessary; use pirated Windows XP, not Concerned about whether to upgrade.

The post-PC era of the concept of stealing

Well-known IT columnist Robert · Robert Cringely recently said that with the decline of the desktop platform, the entire Windows ecosystem will follow The decline. As people will buy fewer desktop PCs and more mobile devices, the desktop platform will continue to decline.

Collingerly asserts: "6 years later, Windows will die." ”Office will also usher in the same fate. Collingily believes that from the free provision of Office applications in the Windows RT system, Microsoft has already admitted that Office has no long-term value for itself. The future belongs to tablets and similar devices.

Indeed, a lot of things will happen in 6 years. But if we arbitrarily believe that we have entered the post-PC era, it will undoubtedly cover up the fact that the PC will not die, it just changed its shape. Although the first attempt of Surface and Windows 8 is far from perfect, Windows 8 has great potential, and Microsoft can rely on it to continue to dominate the operating system market.

PC sales are indeed declining. According to market research firm IHS iSuppli, in 2011, PC shipments were 352.8 million units. In 2012, this figure fell to 348.7 million units, a drop of 1.2%. As early as 2010, smartphone sales exceeded PCs. This year, sales of tablet devices such as iPad and Nexus 7 are expected to reach 124 million units.

You might say that this indicates that the tablet is getting popular, and the PC has been declining. However, the actual situation is much more complicated. In the IT department and the home, the PC upgrade cycle has slowed down. The reason for this is partly because of the economic downturn and because of the demise of “Megahertz Myth”. Today, a 6-year-old PC can still handle basic computing tasks. At the same time, the tablet is improving performance year after year, and while the customers are highly recognized, the sales volume of the tablet is also rising. PCs and tablets have always been converging. In the future, the two devices are likely to reach a compromise and become the same device. Microsoft is relying on Windows 8 to dominate the merger market.

Ten years ago, PCs and notebooks were seen as different products. Today, the two products are also beginning to move toward convergence. The computing power of notebooks is comparable to most desktops, and sometimes it's even better, but it's still a PC. Tablets will take the old path of notebooks, and Microsoft needs to improve the performance of the tablet to the level of the notebook.

Windows 8 has only taken a small step toward the tablet market. It may not be as sophisticated as iOS, nor as simple as Android, but it can bridge fat clients and thin clients more effectively. Office 365 and Office 2013 integrate native and cloud operations, while also allowing users to choose to work offline.

Microsoft is not the only company that bets on it. Apple has been trying to unify Mac OS X and iOS interfaces. For example, Lion and Mountain Lion have introduced iOS features such as full-screen apps and multi-touch gestures. Google Apps, Google Drive, and Apple's iCloud service tightly integrate cloud services for thin clients while serving thin clients.

The iPad is more popular with home users. Compared to Google and Apple, Microsoft still has a huge advantage in the enterprise market. With Windows Server 2008 R2 and Server 2012, Microsoft's back-end architecture support gives Windows 8 and related system versions an edge in the tablet market. For cloud services, Microsoft's point of view is to adapt most companies to this environment: they can be controlled directly, run in their own data centers, and can be managed anywhere like Windows.

It can be seen that Windows 8 is by no means the best of Microsoft, and it will eventually become a winner. Although Windows 8 is not an innovation, it follows the old version, and it is not good enough, but it allows Microsoft to defend the PC's place and successfully take advantage of Windows's biggest advantage: the conservative attitude of installing user groups. Remember this sentence: After 6 years, Windows will still dominate the world of personal computing.